Buttigieg’s a solid fifth in the primary marathon

Presidential primary campaigns are long, grueling races.

Pete Buttigieg was was running fifth out of 24 candidates going into the second round of Democratic presidential debates last week, and he was running fifth coming out of those debates. But two remarks he made during the July 30 debate in Detroit did seem to register some attention to him in the crowded field.

The first remark came in a discussion about the minimum wage, Buttigieg said, “So-called conservative Christian senators right now in the Senate are blocking a bill to raise the minimum wage when scripture says that whoever oppresses the poor taunts their maker.” The remark drew the notice of numerous Christian websites, some of which applauded his willingness to quote from the Bible, most of which criticized him.

A Harris Poll survey conducted right after the July 30-31 debates found that 66 percent of voters say religion is an important part of their lives, so Buttigieg’s appeal to voters’ religious sensibilities could work to his benefit, or backfire.

Buttigieg, an Episcopalian, has talked comfortably about his faith since entering the presidential field in January. During last Tuesday’s debate, he referenced an Old Testament passage (Proverbs 14:31) to criticize senators who refuse to advance a bill to increase the minimum wage to $15.

“Believers across the political spectrum pay attention when a candidate evokes Scripture,” noted Christianity Today. The site reported that the number of internet searches for the Proverbs passage tripled on Bible Gateway right after Buttigieg’s remark.

But the Christian Post, an evangelical news site, said Buttigieg’s remark “shamed” conservative Christians and that “Conservative Christians didn’t take too kindly to Buttigieg’s remark during Tuesday’s debate.”

“This is not the first time that Buttigieg has tried to shame conservative Christians,” said the Christian Post. It noted that, in the first round of Democratic debates in June, Buttigieg remarked that it was hypocritical for the Republican Party to “cloak itself in the language of religion.”

The conservative National Review was quick to point out that the city of South Bend, where Buttigieg is mayor, “advertises numerous positions at pay rates below $15 an hour.” It acknowledged that Buttigieg “pushed to raise” the city’s minimum wage from where it had been –the federal minimum of $7.25—to $10.10 but suggested that was pandering.

“Nothing in the Bible dictates that Christians pay their employees whatever wage is arbitrarily chosen by politicians eager for votes,” said the Review. This is politics: If you say something, it can and will be used against you.

As an openly gay candidate, Buttigieg won’t be worried about losing the votes of evangelicals or right-wing extremists, but he does need to worry about garnering the support of those 66 percent of voters who say religion is important to their lives. The Harris Poll suggests that he’s got some work to do there. The poll surveyed 2,214 registered voters nationwide on July 31 and August 1 and asked, among many other things, “Which of the Democratic presidential candidates shares your values the most?” Only 10 percent chose Buttigieg.

Ignoring the labels

Buttigieg’s second notable remark in the CNN-hosted debates last week addressed concerns expressed by several candidates on the stage that the Democratic Party can’t defeat President Trump if it embraces ideas seen as too progressive or too left-leaning.

“It is time to stop worrying about what the Republicans will say,” said Buttigieg. “If we embrace a far-left agenda, they’re going to say we’re a bunch of crazy socialists. If we embrace a conservative agenda, you know what they’re going to do? They’re going to say we’re a bunch of crazy socialists. So, let’s just stand up for the right policy, go out there and defend it.”

Buttigieg made the remark in the midst of a discussion about whether Democrats should push for “Medicare for all” or allow workers to keep their private health insurance. Buttigieg has a middle ground proposal: “Medicare for all who want it.”

When the Harris survey asked voters “Is it more important that the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate with a strong chance of beating Donald Trump or that the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate who shares your position on issues?” they were deeply split. And when asked which Democrat has the best chance of beating President Trump in November 2020, only one percent named Buttigieg. (Former Vice President Joe Biden took the lead there, being named by 36 percent. Senator Bernie Sanders came in a distant second, with 11 percent.)

The second round of debates did not appear to affect Buttigieg’s ranking. The Harris Poll broke out the responses of the 585 Democrats who participated in the survey and found that four percent were “most likely” going to vote for Buttigieg. While that sounds low, it kept him in fifth place. (Biden had 34 percent, followed by Sanders (17), Senator Kamala Harris (9), and Senator Elizabeth Warren (8).)

Fifth place out of 24 is an impressive standing for an openly gay candidate for president. What polls can’t say is whether he will move up or down from here.

The Harris Poll suggests he has considerable catching up to do on name recognition alone. While 56 percent of respondents in the poll were familiar with Buttigieg, 88 percent were familiar with Sanders, 87 percent with Biden, 77 percent with Warren, and 72 percent with Harris. Even former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who has consistently polled under Buttigieg, had 62 percent name recognition.

The lagging name recognition might be related, to some degree, to his last name being difficult for some people to pronounce. His campaign has tried to overcome that by referring to the candidate as “Mayor Pete,” a name the two-term mayor of South Bend, Indiana, urged his constituents to use, too. But surveys don’t list “Mayor Pete” as an option.

When fifth place counts

A look at 13 national polls of Democrats or voters leaning Democrat, taken by seven different media polling groups prior to last week’s debates, showed Buttigieg with a solid hold on fifth place. But some political commentators are beginning to ask whether he will be able to climb out of the single digits in the polling on a national basis. (He has garnered double-digit support in two of the early voting states: as high as 14 percent in Iowa and 15 percent in New Hampshire but is now polling at about seven percent in Iowa and seven to 10 percent in New Hampshire. A Monmouth University poll in South Carolina, released July 25, showed Buttigieg in fifth place with five percent support.)

The most recent national poll published before the second-round debate also showed Buttigieg in fifth place, with six percent of the support. That poll, taken by Quinnipiac University July 25-28 of 579 voters who identified as Democratic or leaning Democratic (5.1 margin of error) showed Biden (34 percent) in first, followed by Warren (15), Harris (12), and Sanders (11). Buttigieg’s closest contender below was, and has consistently been, O’Rourke of Texas (with two percent).

More national polling will be released in the next few days and weeks, and Buttigieg could move up or down based on his own words and actions or based on those of the other candidates in the field. For instance, the next round of Democratic debates are just a month away, and the criteria for participating in the third round are twice as difficult as the last: To qualify, a candidate must have 130,000 unique donors and poll at least two percent in four national polls. Many pundits say a half of the current field or more may not meet those criteria. Fewer debaters on stage means greater attention for those who make it. At deadline, only eight of the 24 have qualified to be on stage for that debate. Buttigieg is one of them.

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