Harry Reid

A Senate Democratic leadership aide said Monday that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid would bring the defense spending bill with the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell repeal measure to the floor next week.

The decision to do so—if it sticks—is an important step forward for activists hoping to repeal the federal law that bans openly gay servicemembers from the military. Many political observers are predicting that Republicans could take over the majority in the Senate and/or House at the mid-term elections. Such a development would almost certainly kill any chance of repeal for DADT during the Obama first term.

The DADT repeal language was attached to the annual bill that authorizes Department of Defense spending. The language calls for repeal of the military’s ban on gay servicemembers to begin after the Secretary of Defense receives an “implementation report” he has asked for, due December 1, and after the president, defense secretary, and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff have signed a statement certifying that they have considered whatever recommendations are made in the report, prepared the necessary regulations to accompany repeal, and certify that repeal is “consistent with the standards of military readiness, military effectiveness, unit cohesion, and recruiting and retention of the Armed Forces.”

Fiscal year 2011 begins October 1. With the Congressional clock ticking down the last days of fiscal year 2010, the pressure is on to finish off remaining budget bills authorizing spending and appropriating FY 2011 monies. If Congress fails to settle its budget bills by the end of FY 2010, it has the option of passing “continuing resolutions”—bills, which simply set the next year’s fiscal budget at the same levels as the current year.

According to the New York Times, the Senate typically spends about two weeks on the Defense spending bill. Last year’s Defense Authorization bill was passed by the Senate in July, but took more than two months to resolve differences with the House version. So, there is no certainty that DADT will, in fact, come up during the first week or that it will even get a vote before FY 2010 runs out.

Meanwhile, when the defense authorization bill does come to the floor and the Senate begins debate on the language seeking to repeal DADT, the debate is expected to be vigorous, at least from opponents. Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) and other Republicans have made clear they are steadfastly against repeal. The question is whether Democrats believe support for repeal could lose them votes during the mid-term elections, and potentially control of Congress.